Trussville, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

449
FXUS64 KBMX 291733
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1233 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025

...New LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1227 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025

 - A Marginal to Slight Risk (Level 1 and 2 of 5) remains in place
   for Friday, with damaging winds and large hail being the main
   threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 913 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025

Updated the PoPs for the ongoing trends on radar and adjusted the
better rain chances to the south and east. A MCV is currently
moving across the southwest portions of the area and will continue
to slide east through the afternoon. At is currently motion it
will slide over to the Troy area by 1 PM and then out of the area
by 4 PM. With this trajectory the severe potential is very limited
and will mainly stay south of the I-85 corridor at best this
afternoon. Will be updating the severe graphics after this update.
Will go with a limited time frame of Noon to 5 PM. This system
exits out and then we will turn the focus onto the cold front that
will move through Friday morning. Did go higher than guidance on
rain chances with the front for the northern half of the area.

16

Previous short-term discussion:
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 110 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025

The pattern shift is finally here, as only a few more rounds of
showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tomorrow. Storms
are already expanding across the region, as a shortwave moves
through ahead of the main cold front anticipated tomorrow. The
SPC has maintained the Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5), mainly for
activity this morning, and early this afternoon. Any storms that
do become severe will be capable of producing damaging winds and
large hail. Thankfully, this activity will begin to diminish into
the late afternoon and evening hours, with a short break in the
rain expected for tonight.

By tomorrow, the trough and cold front that I`ve been mentioning
the last few days will finally begin to move into the Ohio Valley.
As such, thunderstorm chances will increase ahead of the front,
with portions of the region under a Marginal Risk once more. Just
like today, damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats
with any strong to severe storms.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025

No changes to the long term. Hope everyone enjoys a break on
Saturday. Summer looks to return next week.

16

Previous long-term discussion:
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 110 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025

Very nice weather is expected this weekend behind the cold front,
as afternoon highs will range in the low to mid-80s. Rain chances
will be mostly limited, except for Sunday, where some of our
northern zones may see some scattered showers and thunderstorms
associated with another passing system. However, upper-level
ridging will slowly build in over the east coast by the start of
the new workweek, with afternoon highs climbing back into the
upper-80s by Tuesday. The rest of the long-term looks to be
characterized by this ridge, with limited rain chances expected,
and temperatures returning to a more typical Summer feel.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025

Showers and perhaps a storm will still be possible at MGM this
afternoon. Otherwise showers ending across the north through 19
to 20z. Most of the rain is done in the south by 00z. There will
be some patchy fog overnight ahead of the front that will work
into the area by 12z. TAF sites in the north will see impacts
between 12 and 18z, with some thunderstorms possible from 15 to
18z. MGM may see activity through 21z, just outside of this cycle.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and storms will continue in the southeast through sunset,
then some patchy fog may develop across the area. A cold front
will move through Friday morning into the afternoon. RH values
remain elevated through tomorrow as a cold front moves through the
area. Winds will shift to the northwest and may gust up to 20 mph
at times, but elevated fire weather conditions are not expected.
Some lower RHs will return over the weekend, but values will
remain well above critical thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     62  78  55  81 /  20  90   0   0
Anniston    63  78  56  81 /  10  90   0   0
Birmingham  64  79  58  82 /  10  90   0   0
Tuscaloosa  66  80  59  83 /  10  80   0   0
Calera      65  79  59  82 /  10  90   0   0
Auburn      66  80  60  82 /  20  70   0   0
Montgomery  66  82  59  83 /  20  60   0   0
Troy        66  84  59  82 /  20  70  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16